honesty
- · oversight: None / Minimal · ≈ $52.43 compute
When the verdict contradicts the work: verbalized confidence, chain of thought, and what a truth probe actually reads
Per cell (model x domain x surface format) we compare a trained linear probe on residual activations against the model's own verbalized confidence and a training-free commit-probability baseline, asking whether the internal signal and the verbalized signal fail on the same items.